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Metropolis Reality Forums Ť NOAA predicts two or three hurricanes to hit U.S. ť

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   NOAA predicts two or three hurricanes to hit U.S.

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Topic: NOAA predicts two or three hurricanes to hit U.S. (Read 236 times)

Rhune
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NOAA predicts two or three hurricanes to hit U.S.
« on: May 16^th, 2005, 7:04pm »

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NOAA predicts two or three hurricanes to hit U.S.
By Thom Patterson
CNN

Monday, May 16, 2005 Posted: 4:09 PM EDT (2009 GMT)

(CNN) -- The nation's weather agency predicted two or three hurricanes could hit the United States this year, based on an Atlantic season forecast released Monday.

Overall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts seven to nine hurricanes during the coming season, June 1 to November 30. Last year, four hurricanes slammed the Florida coast, causing scores of deaths and tens of billions in damage.

"It is difficult to make any kind of an accurate prediction of how many of these will strike land," said NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher. "But I think statistically you can look at the fact that when seasons are more active, and we have a higher level of hurricanes, you have a higher chance of hurricanes striking the United States."

"So I would expect two to three perhaps striking the United States," Lautenbacher said.

The forecast said three to five of the hurricanes will be major storms ranked Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane strength.

NOAA's 2004 forecast proved to be fairly accurate. It predicted six to eight hurricanes, two to four of which would be at least Category 3, which have winds of 111 mph to 130 mph.

In reality, six hurricanes reached Category 3 strength or higher, out of the nine storms that eventually were designated hurricanes.

Four of the hurricanes -- Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne -- hit Florida directly, and one indirectly within just six weeks. It is believed the four storms caused more than $40 billion in damage.

Frank Lepore of the National Hurricane Center said scientists were looking at warmer ocean temperatures as a possible factor in this year's forecast.

"The issue, really, this year is the anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic," Lepore said.

Warm water provides fuel for tropical storms to increase strength and become fierce hurricanes. The surface temperatures of the Atlantic are warmer earlier this year than they were at the same time in 2004, Lepore said.

An average Atlantic season produces six hurricanes, Lepore said. "Just for historical perspective, we were actually below average in the decades of the '70s, the '80s and half-way through the '90s," he said. "That is, less than six hurricanes on average per season."

Since 1995, the Atlantic hurricane seasons have been above normal except for the El Nino years of 1997 and 2002.

CNN's Douglas Wood contributed to this report.

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Bumper
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Re: NOAA predicts two or three hurricanes to hit U
« Reply #1 on: May 17^th, 2005, 1:00am »

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For those of us on the east atlantic coast, I think it's safe to say, we are tired of dealing with these above normal "active" hurricane seasons.

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lakelady
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Re: NOAA predicts two or three hurricanes to hit U
« Reply #2 on: May 17^th, 2005, 9:14am »

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Same here Bumper. They are very bad here in the south as well.

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AoM
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Re: NOAA predicts two or three hurricanes to hit U
« Reply #3 on: May 17^th, 2005, 9:34am »

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aww, come on guys, aside from the damage and the billions of dollars they cost taxpayers, hurricanes are fun!! I had a blast for Isabel!

Except we had no water in our house for three days

Or Power

Or cable TV, internet access, air conditioning, or food.

Wait maybe I am changing my mind Grin

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luci
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Re: NOAA predicts two or three hurricanes to hit U
« Reply #4 on: May 17^th, 2005, 10:32am »

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All we get from Hurricanes is a lot of rain, but we are saddened
to see the damage and know friends and family are in harm's way.

We sure don't travel to coastal areas during that time.
Palm trees bent over double is not a sight we enjoy,
with the threat of more danger to come......................

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Rhune
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Re: NOAA predicts two or three hurricanes to hit U
« Reply #5 on: May 17^th, 2005, 12:04pm »

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on May 17^th, 2005, 9:34am, Angelofmercy wrote:

Except we had no water in our house for three days

Sounds like an excellent time to start stocking up on things like bottled water or non-perishable food. At least they are able to give us plenty of warning so you don't have to wait till the last minute and fight it out with everyone else at the store for those things.

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AoM
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Re: NOAA predicts two or three hurricanes to hit U
« Reply #6 on: May 17^th, 2005, 2:11pm »

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we had the bottled water rhune, (we'd had it since the way started, ya never know) but it was just a few gallon jugs, not enough to drink, cook, shower, and flush toilets with. The toilet flushing was the main thing, we were on a well, so we can't use water without electricty, we'd kill the pump. So no electricity, no water, no toilet flushing.

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Rhune
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Re: NOAA predicts two or three hurricanes to hit U
« Reply #7 on: May 17^th, 2005, 2:34pm »

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Ewwww...

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navywife65
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Re: NOAA predicts two or three hurricanes to hit U
« Reply #8 on: May 17^th, 2005, 7:06pm »

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I've been through quite a few hurricanes since I moved to Virginia. But I've never been this close to the water before. We're only about 1/4 mile from the ocean. The kids and I will have to float the car all the way to
Richmond and camp out on Bumper and wife's doorstop. Grin

« Last Edit: May 17^th, 2005, 7:08pm by navywife65 »

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