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Metropolis Reality Forums « Another recession in 2010?? »

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   Author  Topic: Another recession in 2010??  (Read 974 times)
Genius
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Another recession in 2010??
« on: Apr 2nd, 2009, 9:25pm »		 Quote Quote Modify Modify
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5308HW20090402
 
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Although the U.S. economy is expected to return to growth later this year, there is a danger of a second recession if monetary easing and a weak dollar leads to increased inflation expectations, a report said on Wednesday.
 
Massive stimulus spending and moves by the Federal Reserve to fuel economic activity is expected to jump-start the anemic U.S. economy in the last quarter of this year after it contracted 6.3 percent in fourth quarter of 2008.
 
But the Fed's moves to boost the economy by slashing interest rates and buying up billions in government debt could have undesired consequences, The Conference Board, a private research group, said in the report.
 
"If the United States experiences a too-rapid recovery, there may be a risk of another recession in 2010," said Bart van Ark, vice president and chief economist of The Conference Board.
 
"It may fuel expectations for a return to inflation, adding to the uncertainty concerning the pattern and path of economic recovery," he said.
 
The U.S. economy has the potential for a "double-dip" recession, Van Ark noted, similar to 1980 and 1982, as commodity prices rise on the back of a falling dollar and monetary easing.
 
He added, however, that the likelihood of this scenario taking place is small as deflation risks are great, while government stimulus spending should stem further economic decline and ease the flow of job losses.
 
The U.S. economy could contract by 2.6 percent in 2009, the largest annual decline since 1946, the Conference Board said.
« Last Edit: Apr 2nd, 2009, 9:26pm by Genius » IP Logged
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Elizabeth
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Re: Another recession in 2010??
« Reply #1 on: Apr 3rd, 2009, 9:10am »		 Quote Quote Modify Modify
Great. Just great.
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Heather
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Re: Another recession in 2010??
« Reply #2 on: Apr 3rd, 2009, 12:05pm »		 Quote Quote Modify Modify
This is why the recession gets worse, because the media keeps giving such a negative image.... if they were more positive people would be more willing to buy things i think. They just make everyone depressed.
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Bumper
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Re: Another recession in 2010??
« Reply #3 on: Apr 3rd, 2009, 1:16pm »		 Quote Quote Modify Modify

If the economy goes down . . .say 60% and then after six months comes back 20% (figures are merely for an example), and then a year from that goes down 20% again, I don't think you can say the "first" recession is over and call that 20% downturn a "second recession".
 
That's like saying you put a guy in a 20 foot hole, fill the hole with water  and then adjust the water depth a few feet up or down.    
 
. . . . Until you lift the poor bastard out of the hole and back to where he was to begin with, . . .  the guy is still drowning.   Anything other than that is just adjusting the water level and patting yourself on the back for doing so.   :smmirk:
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Bumper
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Re: Another recession in 2010??
« Reply #4 on: Apr 3rd, 2009, 1:38pm »		 Quote Quote Modify Modify
on Apr 3rd, 2009, 12:05pm, Heather wrote:
This is why the recession gets worse, because the media keeps giving such a negative image.... if they were more positive people would be more willing to buy things i think. They just make everyone depressed.

 
Sorry Heather, but that approach is like sticking your head in the sand and thinking happy thoughts.  All you are doing is fooling yourself and ignoring the problem.  The root problems aren't going to go away by not talking about them.  Jobs are going away at an alarming rate.  Peoples Investment portfolios, retirement accounts and life's savings have been descimated.  That's REAL!  
 
We have seen about 40 to 60% of people's net worth VANISH in the past six months.  
 
The bottom line on that is  . . . .with what he has left, a man 40 years old will NOT get back (financially) to where he was (not ahead mind you, WAS) in mid 2008 until he is 60.    
 
I'm sorry, but thinking "positive" won't erase that cold hard fact, and that man's future actions and decisions regarding what he is able to afford, and how he spends the remainder of his life, is going to reflect that cold hard fact.
 
Just my two cents worth. . . . . I wish I had more.   :winkgrin:
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Isle_be_back
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Re: Another recession in 2010??
« Reply #5 on: Apr 3rd, 2009, 3:34pm »		 Quote Quote Modify Modify
on Apr 3rd, 2009, 1:38pm, Bumper wrote:

 
Just my two cents worth. . . . . I wish I had more.

 
Here you go...  :twocents:
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