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Wacky Wanda's S13 Episode 9 Commentary!
« on: Nov 14th, 2006, 11:56am » |
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Here's Wanda's weekly commentary about the last episode of Survivor...
This has been a season full of surprises and change-ups, and, clearly, they are not over yet!
Episode 9 contained three major surprises. The first was that the contestants were given the opportunity to defect to the other tribe, and the second and third surprises were that Candice and Jonathan took the offer!
I found it nearly incredible that Candice and Jonathan would leave the security of their alliance with Yul and Becky and move to rejoin Adam and Parvati when the merge that would allow them to reconnect anyway would be only days away. Sticking with Yul and Becky essentially allowed Candice and Jonathan to have their eggs in two baskets -- the Yul/Becky option or, post-merge, the Adam/Parvati option. They've now pretty much put all their eggs in one basket, with Adam and Parvati.
Nate does not welcome newcomers, especially those who are traitors to their own tribe, and Jenny and Rebecca are undoubtedly with him. The problem for these three is that, having voted Brad out, they've allowed the four Caucasians to reunite, and until the merge (which is imminent), the Caucasian Four can and likely will stick together, keeping Jenny and Rebecca right where they have been -- in the #1 and #2 spots on the New-Raro Most Vulnerable list. Nate is a strong presence, but I'm not sure that any of his tribemates have given any thought to eliminating him as a threat.
Two things interesting to see about Nate this week: 1) his we-don't-want-a-leader attitude, and 2) his eagerness to blindside Brad about the TC vote. Nate continues to be a colorful, powerful, interesting character.
The foursome left at Aitu has a lot going for them. Ozzy himself is a lot! Enough cannot be said about what he does for a tribe in terms of a) keeping everyone well fed and b) winning challenges. The Aitu 4 went against the Raro 8 in two matches and beat both their A team and their B team. This strengthened them immeasurably, both physically (by winning food in the reward challenge) and morally (by affording the best of all bonding experiences, the sharing of letters from home). This tribe is now solid with trust, while mistrust pervades the minds of the remaining 7 Raros.
We might remind ourselves again that this tribe also has the immunity idol, which, post-merge, acts as a fifth person in that Yul can play it to protect himself, Becky, Oz, or Sundra, and take out one of the rival 7 in a merged tribe.
That's assuming 7 Raros would be in the merge, which I doubt. Aitu has proven that they can beat the best combos that Raro can throw against them. There is little doubt in my mind that another Raro is next to go. That would bring us to a 6:4 Raro:Aitu ratio at the merge.
I've been saying for weeks that we still have too many people in this game, and it's time to throw that out again, with the speculation that this could be another double elim week. The briefly-previewed "message in the bottle" may add to this twist. We've already had a one-from-each-tribe double elim, and rumor has it that the next double elim could be two from the losing tribe, in which case Jenny and Rebecca could be out, subject to Jonathan convincing Adam that Adam can trust him more than J or R as a long-term ally, or making the case that Nate's a threat.
Castaway Comments:
Candice -- Yep, she likes Adam. But I didn't see her move as smart play for somebody who's supposed to be astute about Survivor. It also disappointed me because I think she failed to develop the close connections of friendship that Yul, Becky, Sundra, and Oz offered and wanted from her. Survivor offers a unique opportunity to bond with people outside one's normal subculture (read: ethnic background), and Candice kept yearning for Caucasian sameness. I see that as an opportunity lost for her, and I think it's kinda sad.
Jonathan -- I've come to like him. Early on, he was coming across to me as a dominant white male in a way that I rather reacted against. His impulsiveness in following the lead of a girl more than 20 years his junior (he is 44, she 23), surprised me. (In the circumstance, since Candice's rush to reunite with Adam seemed almost adolescent to me, I've used the term girl deliberately instead of woman.) This put Jonathan in a very vulnerable position with Nate and Co., and he was lucky that Brad ("it's every man for himself!") created an opportunity for Jonathan to be spared. I admired Jonathan's diligent work around camp and his efforts to prove himself as someone worthy of acceptance after taking a huge risk. I will feel a sadness when he is voted out, which seems sooner-or-later inevitable now.
It would seem that Candice and Jonathan could be quick targets of their old Aitu tribemates after the merge, but on the other hand, Yul/Oz/Becky/Sundra are only four, and they may need to realign with Jonathan and Candice, at least short term, to take out some Raros. However, I can't see Candice and Jonathan as Final Four material any more. They might have been if they had stuck with Yul and Becky.
OZ: I love that young man more and more with every episode. I'm totally delighted to see him in a more secure position. That, to me, was the best result of Candice and Jonathan's move.
Just supposing that the 7 Raros drop to 5 before the merge. That leaves 5 Raros to 4 Aitus, but the 4 Aitus have the immunity idol. If Yul plays it, a Raro goes out, creating a 4-4 balance of Raro:Aitu one TC after the merge. With Oz winning immunities, the power will be with the Aitu 4 as we move toward the finale.
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